BY REUBEN MUSONIK, POLITICAL EDITOR, THE DISPATCH DIGITAL
Raila Odinga, Kenya’s long-serving opposition leader and former Prime Minister, has decided to reduce his role in national politics and pursue the Chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC). This pivotal decision signals a significant reorientation of both Kenyan and continental politics. His departure marks the end of an era for Kenya, where he has been a central figure for decades. Odinga’s move is not only a seismic shift for the country’s political landscape but also presents new opportunities and challenges for the African continent.
With President William Ruto lending his support to Odinga’s candidacy, a rare moment of bipartisan endorsement, this political move transcends local politics and amplifies the magnitude of Odinga’s ambitions on the African stage. His candidacy highlights his Pan-African vision and East Africa’s growing prominence in continental leadership, yet it leaves behind a political vacuum that could reshape the future of his party, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and Kenya’s opposition landscape.
1. Pan-African Leadership Ambitions
Raila Odinga’s decision to pursue the AUC Chairmanship underscores his long-standing commitment to Pan-Africanism and signals his shift toward a broader African agenda. The AUC is one of the most influential organs within the African Union (AU), tasked with driving integration, peace, and development across the continent. If Odinga secures this position, it will solidify East Africa’s leadership role in continental affairs, giving the region a more prominent voice in determining Africa’s political and economic future.
Odinga’s wealth of experience, particularly as the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development, positions him as a formidable candidate. His leadership in this role has been instrumental in spearheading projects like the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor, among others, aimed at enhancing intra-African trade and connectivity. His vision for Africa’s development, based on infrastructure integration and economic collaboration, aligns with the AU’s Agenda 2063—a blueprint for Africa’s transformation.
However, Odinga’s shift in focus to continental leadership could leave Kenya without the dynamic opposition voice that he has provided for decades. In his absence, ODM, the party he founded and nurtured into Kenya’s most prominent opposition force, may struggle to maintain its cohesion and influence. The opposition’s ability to hold the government accountable may also be weakened, potentially allowing the ruling party, UDA, to consolidate power more easily.
2. The Future of ODM Without Raila
Raila Odinga has been synonymous with ODM since its inception, guiding it through several elections and transforming it into Kenya’s most influential opposition party. His departure from active leadership raises questions about the future of the party. Gladys Wanga, recently appointed as the new ODM chairperson, now faces the daunting task of keeping the party relevant in a rapidly shifting political landscape. Wanga’s strong leadership credentials make her a capable successor, but without Odinga’s unifying presence, maintaining the party’s cohesion and appeal could prove to be an uphill battle.
ODM is already facing internal challenges and growing pressure from rival political formations. Key figures such as Migori Governor Ochilo Ayacko and other senior party leaders who have long relied on Odinga’s political influence now find themselves in a more precarious position. Ayacko, an on-off supporter of Odinga, must navigate a more competitive political environment without the direct backing of his current benefactor. This political uncertainty may trigger further divisions within ODM, as various factions and leaders vie for prominence in Odinga’s absence.
Moreover, the generational divide within ODM could also become more pronounced. Younger leaders and members may push for a different vision for the party, one that is more attuned to the concerns of the youth. As ODM recalibrates its leadership structure and political agenda, the party will need to redefine its identity to remain relevant in the evolving Kenyan political landscape.
3. Youth Engagement and Babu Owino’s Exclusion
A critical element of Odinga’s legacy is his approach to engaging younger leaders within ODM. Despite his strong appeal to younger voters, Odinga has consistently avoided elevating the controversial yet popular Babu Owino to a national leadership position within the party. Owino, known for his outspoken and sometimes polarizing rhetoric, has garnered significant support among Kenya’s urban youth, particularly in Nairobi. His exclusion from the upper echelons of ODM’s leadership reflects Odinga’s cautious approach, prioritizing stability and unity within the party over potentially divisive figures or those with an eye on his position.
However, Odinga’s reluctance to embrace a figure like Babu Owino could have long-term consequences for ODM’s relationship with younger voters. With Kenya’s youth increasingly disillusioned with traditional political structures, the party risks alienating a key demographic that has been instrumental in shaping political discourse. Recent Gen Z protests, which expressed frustrations with economic inequality and systemic corruption, are indicative of the growing discontent among Kenya’s younger population. ODM’s failure to fully incorporate dynamic youth leaders like Owino could further erode its appeal to this crucial voter base.
If ODM cannot bridge the gap between its older leadership and the younger generation, it may face declining support among a demographic that is becoming more politically active and vocal about their demands for change.
4. The Opposition Leadership Void
Odinga’s reduced involvement in local politics comes at a time when Kenya is grappling with a host of pressing challenges, including rising national debt, inflation, unemployment, and social unrest. The role of the opposition in providing checks and balances to the government’s actions is more critical than ever. With Odinga stepping back, the opposition may struggle to maintain its effectiveness in holding President William Ruto’s administration accountable.
In Kenya’s political landscape, where opposition parties often depend on strong, charismatic leaders, Odinga’s departure creates a leadership vacuum that could fragment the opposition. Figures such as Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua, and Fred Matiang’i are now faced with the challenge of stepping into Odinga’s shoes. Musyoka, a former Vice President and long-time ally of Odinga, has already begun consolidating his position as the de facto opposition leader. He has signaled his intention to run for the presidency in 2027 and has been actively rallying support across key regions.
Karua, who served as Odinga’s running mate in the 2022 elections, remains a key figure within the opposition. While she has expressed dissatisfaction with the current political environment, her cautious approach to leadership and her efforts to consolidate smaller parties under the Narc Kenya banner suggest she is positioning herself for a more prominent role.
Fred Matiang’i, the former Interior Cabinet Secretary, is another potential leader in the opposition ranks. Known for his technocratic approach and no-nonsense governance style, Matiang’i has yet to declare his political ambitions openly. However, his past experience in government and his reputation for efficiency make him a credible contender for a leadership role in the opposition.
5. Raila’s Continental Legacy
As Odinga shifts his focus to the continental stage, his legacy as a Pan-African leader comes into sharper focus. His leadership on key issues such as infrastructure development, economic integration, and governance reform could have a lasting impact on the African Union and its member states. If successful in his bid for the AUC Chairmanship, Odinga will have the opportunity to shape the future of African politics, particularly in areas like trade, security, and development.
However, Odinga’s move to continental leadership could also complicate his political legacy in Kenya. Should ODM falter in his absence, critics may argue that his decision to pursue Pan-African ambitions came at the expense of the party and the people who supported him for decades. Odinga’s ability to balance his continental responsibilities with maintaining influence in Kenya will be crucial in determining how his legacy is perceived in the long term.
6. Kalonzo Musyoka’s Emergence as De Facto Opposition Leader
With Odinga stepping back, Kalonzo Musyoka is positioning himself as the main opposition figure in Kenya. Musyoka, who has served as Odinga’s deputy in multiple election campaigns, is now focused on building his own political base and preparing for the 2027 presidential elections. His proactive approach, including holding rallies and engaging with supporters in key regions like Nyanza, Kisii, and Migori, reflects his ambition to succeed Odinga as the face of Kenya’s opposition.
Musyoka has also reached out to other political figures, such as Eugene Wamalwa, to form alliances that can challenge the Ruto administration. However, his main challenge will be maintaining unity within the Azimio coalition, which has seen key ODM figures co-opted into government roles. Musyoka’s success as an opposition leader will depend on his ability to keep the coalition intact and rally discontented voters around a common agenda.
7. William Ruto’s Dominance and the 2027 Elections
As Odinga steps back, President William Ruto may find himself facing a less formidable opposition in the lead-up to the 2027 elections. Ruto, a shrewd political operator, has already demonstrated his ability to outmaneuver rivals, as evidenced by his victory in the 2022 elections. With key opposition figures either co-opted into his administration or struggling to maintain their political bases, Ruto’s position as the dominant figure in Kenyan politics could be further consolidated.
Ruto’s administration is also benefiting from a weakened opposition, with ODM and other opposition parties grappling with internal divisions and leadership challenges. As Ruto continues to implement his agenda, the absence of a strong opposition could give him a freer hand in shaping the country’s political and economic trajectory.
Finally, Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the African Union Commission Chairmanship represents both a new chapter in his political career and a profound shift in Kenya’s political landscape. His move to the continental stage highlights East Africa’s growing influence in Pan-African affairs but also leaves Kenya’s opposition in a vulnerable position. With ODM facing internal challenges and the generational divide within the party growing, the future of Kenya’s opposition is uncertain. As Kalonzo Musyoka and other opposition figures step up, the coming years will reveal whether they can fill the void left by Odinga and provide the leadership Kenya needs to navigate its complex political and economic challenges.