Tensions Mount in Kenya as Calls for Gachagua’s Impeachment Intensify: Is Ruto Facing a Political Time Bomb?

The political heat in Kenya has surged since the election of President William Ruto and his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua. Once seen as an unstoppable duo, cracks in their alliance are widening, and calls for Gachagua’s impeachment have intensified the drama on the country’s political stage. With growing dissatisfaction, particularly from leaders in Mount Kenya, the pressure on Ruto to sack his deputy has been mounting. But while it might seem like an easy way to quell the discontent in his camp, Gachagua’s impeachment could end up causing far more damage than good.

Ruto’s Urge to Show Gachagua the Door: Political Sabotage?

In the Impoeachment Motion that has reportedly been drafted by Peter Manyonge Wanyama, is to be moved by Deputy Majority Leader Owen Baya and Seconded by Kibwezi West MP Mwengi Mutuse, Gachagua is being accused of backstabbing the very administration he helped put in power. There’s also been growing chatter from within the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition that the Deputy President has been playing a double game. Allegations are flying thick and fast that he’s been quietly stirring up opposition, including protests fuelled by Kenya’s youth, in a bid to disrupt government operations.

This alleged sabotage has led many in Ruto’s camp to view Gachagua as a potential rival eyeing the top seat, sooner rather than later. He’s also been accused of pushing policies that favour his Mount Kenya backyard, alienating other regions in the country. As Gachagua continues to focus on local politics rather than the national agenda, many MPs are beginning to see him as more of a liability than an asset, urging Ruto to pull the trigger and cut him loose.

The Mount Kenya Power Struggle: All About the Numbers

A big part of why Ruto’s thinking about Gachagua’s impeachment has to do with the Deputy President’s growing influence in Mount Kenya. His grip on the region has left many lawmakers feeling sidelined, and they’re itching to claw back some of the political power Gachagua has been consolidating. The plotters of the Imeachment, most of them Kikuyu MPs led by Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah, are worruied that if Gachagua survives they may not win back their seats at the next election, which is however still assured (that they will not win) even if he is impeached.

Mount Kenya is not just any region—it’s a powerhouse when it comes to votes, and anyone with ambitions of holding onto the presidency knows they can’t afford to lose it. But Gachagua’s dominance has caused plenty of friction in the Kenya Kwanza camp. Many MPs see this as a moment to strike, and they believe that by getting rid of him, they’ll restore balance in the coalition and prevent a regional monopoly from dictating national politics.

Ruto’s Dilemma: Between a Rock and a Hard Place

But as much as Ruto may want to give Gachagua the boot, doing so comes with enormous risks. Gachagua still has a rock-solid base in Mount Kenya, and ousting him could turn the region against Ruto. It’s a political gamble that could backfire spectacularly, especially with the next general election looming in 2027.

Mount Kenya was pivotal in Ruto’s win in 2022, and any move that looks like a betrayal of their man could see the region swing against him. Gachagua has already made it clear that if he’s forced out, it will be seen as an attack on the entire Mount Kenya bloc, warning that the region will not take it lying down.

Coalition Cracks: Is Kenya Kwanza Falling Apart?

Beyond the regional implications, ousting Gachagua could fracture the Kenya Kwanza coalition. While some MPs are calling for his removal, not everyone is on board. Gachagua still commands loyalty from a significant portion of the coalition, and any move to impeach him could lead to further divisions.

The coalition has so far relied on a delicate balance of power between different regions and political blocs. Impeaching Gachagua would tip that balance, risking the collapse of the very alliances that brought Ruto to power. With opposition figures like Raila Odinga waiting in the wings, ready to pounce on any sign of weakness, Ruto must tread carefully.

Weak Leadership or Political Masterstroke?

If Ruto is seen to be backing the impeachment of his own deputy, it could paint a picture of weak leadership. The shadow of the strained relationship between Ruto and former President Uhuru Kenyatta still looms large over the country. Ruto was once the deputy who cried foul over being sidelined by Kenyatta, and if he’s seen to be doing the same to Gachagua, it could open him up to accusations of hypocrisy.

Political analysts are already drawing comparisons between the two situations, warning that Ruto could suffer the same fate as Kenyatta, with a disjointed administration that struggles to deliver. Backing Gachagua’s removal could undermine Ruto’s promise of respecting the role of the Deputy President, a stance he championed after his fallout with Kenyatta.

The Fallout: What Happens if Gachagua Goes?

If Gachagua is impeached, the ripple effects could reshape the political landscape, particularly in Mount Kenya. With one of its most prominent figures removed from power, the region could see a scramble for leadership. Potential successors will be jostling for control, and it’s unlikely that Gachagua will go quietly into the night.

Opposition leaders, especially Raila Odinga, are already eyeing the fallout from Gachagua’s troubles. If Gachagua is removed, it could provide the perfect opportunity for Odinga to forge alliances with disaffected leaders from the region, positioning himself as a champion of their cause.

Kenya Kwanza’s Future: A Coalition on the Brink?

For Kenya Kwanza, the stakes couldn’t be higher. If Gachagua goes, the coalition could descend into chaos, with competing factions trying to fill the power vacuum. It could also embolden other leaders within the government who are unhappy with how things are being run.

Gachagua’s removal could open the floodgates, sparking a wave of challenges to Ruto’s authority. If Ruto can’t manage the fallout, his presidency could be mired in internal strife, making it harder to govern and putting his 2027 re-election bid at serious risk.

Ruto’s Balancing Act: Unity or Survival?

In the end, Ruto is walking a tightrope. On the one hand, Gachagua’s removal could ease tensions within his administration and reduce the growing influence of Mount Kenya in Kenya Kwanza. On the other hand, it risks alienating a key voter base and triggering a chain reaction that could splinter the coalition.

The decision Ruto makes in the coming weeks will define his presidency. Does he stick with Gachagua and hope the tensions ease, or does he pull the trigger and face the political consequences? Either way, the drama isn’t over yet.