‘Baba’ Raila Odinga Engages Ruto But Could Face Gen Z Rejection, Rebellion
Opposition leader faces growing discontent over his stand that he and his party, ODM, will engage with President William Ruto, which youth see as an excuse to join the Ruto government
By THEDSIPATCH.DIGITAL REPORTER
Opposition leader Raila Odinga was reportedly holed in a secretive meeting early on Thursday afternoon at the Radisson Blue Hotel in Nairobi discussing details of a coalition arrangement with William Ruto even as he found himself in the unfamiliar territory of facing a rebellion from his supporters and allies. As the meeting, which unconfirmed reports said was convened under former Nigerian President Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, his Azimio One Kenya Coalition and revolting youth insisted there would be no talks with Ruto and only action would be acceptable.
In tactics reminiscent of how Raila dealt with an emergence of young ODM leaders who seemed intent on displacing him, a gang of ‘Men in Black’ stormed the ODM House headquarters yesterday as Kalonzo Musyoka was holding a press conference and violently disrupted it. Musyoka is among Azimio leaders who have opposed talks with Ruto, saying it’s time for action, not talks. Others are Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni, NAK Kenya Leader Martha Karua and DAP Kenya Party Leader Eugene Wamalwa.
Through his allies and indirect talk, Raila appears determined to join Ruto’s embattled government and save it from collapse. In a report appearing in a section of the press, Raila is reported saying, “Ruto goes then what? Ruto may go then Gacagua takes over to implement bad policies. Ruto can also say ‘I am tried let the military generals take over.’ Then the country starts to go through what Egypt went through after Tahrir Square. ‘Ruto must go’ cannot be an end. It’s at times of crisis like this that a country needs to talk,. We’re not doing it to save Ruto. We’re doing it to save Kenya.”
But Raila’s sentiments were understood in some quarters to be justification of his decision to join the Ruto government as sweet revenge to the Mt. Kenya region that had rejected him to vote for Ruto at the last elections. Raila, who does not appear to have thought the youth revolt would be so successful as to force the government to do things he has been unable to force it in his thirty-five years in politics, was now ready take leadership and offer direction. Some observers believe that for the first time, he has come under pressure as his bargaining chip as the “owner” of demonstrations had been stolen by the youth without a clear leader or with the sort of mobilisation capital he has controlled over the years.
But as the talks progressed in secret, there were claims that those in ODM pushing for talks with Ruto were not elected leaders but formers governors and unelected politicians who were interested in getting jobs for themselves. These individuals include Ali Hassan Joho and, Wycliffe Oparanya, both unemployed former governors suspected of having presided over corruption in their counties.
However, Raila’s coalition allies continued distancing themselves from the suggested talks with the government, leaving him isolated and seemingly hungry for power, which may have led him to declare that he was not going into a coalition with Ruto but to discuss the fate of Kenya. Indeed some international media like Deutsch Welle (DW) Africa reported that Raila’s coalition had rejected a coalition with Ruto, although this remained the main target of his unemployed allies.
It is generally believed that once Raila speaks openly against the protests, they will be neutered and his supporters would come out on the streets to fight off protestors. Although those advocating for Raila to bring in his supporters onto the streets do not seem to have considered that such a scenario is a recipe for not just civil strife but ethnic war. Presently, the fight against Ruto has been portrayed as a Kikuyu fight and Deputy President Rigathi Gacagua has bene drawn into it. This is augmented by the fact that Gacagua’s principal advisor, former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, who is also Raila’s former advisor, has openly said, “the other side (ODM) has a very smart guy, the problem is hawezi pangwa. We want to be in the next government and we don’t want someone who will outsmart us. We want someone who we can panga as they panga us.”
“The ODM crowd is being lured into talks by the fear of a Gacagua presidency,” observes Peter Odero Odhiambo a university student in Nairobi. “the fear of another Kikuyu presidency is enough to bring all the Luos together under Ruto. To them, they cannot stand another Kikuyu being President so Gacagua is a no-no-no for them. It’s better to have ten Rutos than Gacagua.”
Many Luo people believe the Kikuyu community betrayed them and Raila when they opted to vote for Ruto at he 2022 elections, even after former President Uhuru Kenyatta campaign for an supported Raila for the Presidency. It is part of the reason Raila’s base of Nyanza did not come out strongly in the Gen Z demonstrations, even though they had grievances of their own. In fact, the region’s entry into the demos, especially in Migori and Homa Bay counties, where Raila enjoys strong fanatical support, were protests against local county government corruption than protests against the national government. In both Migori and Homa Bay for instance, the governors are accused of bringing their relatives into government an giving them control of critical financial instruments and awarding all the lucrative tenders to them, leaving very little business available to them. In Migori, the local governor, Ochilo Ayacko, has also been accused of conspiring to sack all employees hired by former governor Okoth Obado to bring in his own who will help him campaign in 2027.
As an alliance of Ruto and Raila seemed to take shape, pro-Ruto and pro-Raila propagandists took to social media to either issue threats or declare support for the unlikely partnership brought together by ethnic phobia. Ruto’s online bloggers poured praise on Raila for agreeing to take Ruto’s side against what they generally called ‘coup plotters.” Bit the praise could also be a revelation of weakness of Ruto’s administration, accepting that it did not have the numbers or popularity to withstand the storm of the protests unleashed by the unpopular taxes he accepted without question as they were suggested by the IMF.
Gen Z Pressure
Gen Z activists online continued to put pressure on Raila, accusing him of double standards when he questions where Ruto is going yet he (Raila) pushed Kenyans to push for ‘Uhuru Must Go’ when he lost two elections against him. Said Grace Akinyi on Facebook, “‘What next’ is a weaponised statement and Raila Odinga should be the last person asking the young people “what next”. He sung Kibaki must go, Uhuru must go, Ruto must go and we didn’t ask him what next. What was he thinking was next when he was telling us to march to statehouse and remove Ruto from power! Raila Odinga and his apologists now believe that children asking for good governance are anarchists and him who has been singing Uhuru/Ruto/Kibaki must go regime after regime is a national hero!”
What started as a genuine youth-driven push for good governance and accountability appears to be in the throes of being reduced to an ethnic fight for power. The Kalenjin power elite is pushing, and involving the Kalenjin masses, the narrative that it is the Kikuyu elite led by former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President Rigathi Gacagua, clamouring for Ruto to leave power. Under Raila, the Luos are joining in to exact revenge on the Kikuyu for not voting for Raila in 2022.
Some analysts point out however, that Raila’s apparent soft spot for the Ruto regime is to keep his campaign for African Union Chairman’s job on course. They claim that if he antagonizes Ruto and fails to offer him a shoulder to lean on in this time of crisis, his campaign, which has high chances of success, could stall leading to him being ridiculed as a failure. They say that his heart may not be in supporting Ruto but circumstances dictate that he offers him some support, even if that support may not be absolute or lead to formation of a coalition government.
